Why The Federation Drought Was Due To Repeat

As 2016 came to a close on the back of a wet year for Australia (where around 80% of the country had above median rainfall for the year), the foundations of a severe drought were moving into play. Unbeknown to the business, individual, private weather forecasters and meteorological organizations, the cycles were setting up to repeat a pattern which had not been seen since the early 1900’s. To a student of cyclical analysis and time patterns, the setup was inevitable for history to repeat with a simple cycle of 120 years and its different time dilations, to replicate the Federation drought to which our country experienced over 60% of very below average rainfall.

120 years is not a perfect cycle but a good reference point for an overall trend. That is because time doesn’t behave in a linear fashion, it is based on velocity, which in itself, is based on mass and squared measurements of space. This allowed us to navigate when the severity of the repetition was to come. The most severe time period the cycles had indicated was 2019, which is the worst year on record for Australia in regards to limited rainfall. The worst climatic year for the federation drought was between 1901 and 1902. Does that mean the worst is over from 2019? Let us have a further look.

The federation drought was not just one year, it is referred to as a period around the federation of Australia which encompassed around 12 – 7 years depending on the area which gave a starting year of around 1895. This gives quite a few years to where certain areas were under considerably dry circumstances to which dust storms were frequent, wildlife and stock starved or died of thirst and economic depression set in. Climatologists still view the federation drought as the beginning of a multi decadal time period from the wet period of the 19th century, to the mid 1940’s. Depending on our starting point, that still gives us an overall dryer period till the 2060’s if we are to follow that simple linear time period.

This is one trend to work with but obviously cycles work in a different format. We also have to take into account larger cycles that were in play at the time of the federation drought, that we have no reference point for investigative data. Were there wetter cycles in play in that time period to which gave more rain in these past periods? Possibly! Could we be dealing with drier cycles that are centuries old in the meantime, that will exacerbate the current drought moving forward? Possibly also! This is the Achilles heel to cyclical methods of forecasting, which is the lack of accurate data to be able to reference. There are cycles which take hundreds and also thousands of years to complete which we have no access to for our studies and inputs for the models.

With the data and information we do have, we can defiantly identify trends and areas which pose higher risks of dry or wet weather in certain time frames and areas. In conjunction with our cartographic weather hunter, we can really start to get areas of risk defined into specific days of the year with reference to our rainfall chances maps. There is no system like Solweather’s to which the forecasting timeframes blast out further and longer than any traditional meteorological organisation and to which these organisations could only dream of attempting with any kind of practical accuracy.

The 2018 and 2019 mean cycle forecast maps to show areas of repeating drought were forecast below:

The correlation for the 2 years is an uncanny match! The limiting factor of higher accuracy is when we have cycles coming over to when we have no reference point or data to look back on. That is where our Cartographic Weather Hunter helps fill the gaps.

Where do the cycles head from here?? Well, we are entering unprecedented territory to which can only be described in Biblical proportions. We are completing a 6000-year cycle to which we are in a transitional period of extremities. This extreme period will continue and crescendo into the early 2030’s by the measure of past cycles which paints both ends of the stick with drought and floods. Of course, we have had droughts and floods since the genesis of time but this time period will rewrite historic records of the modern era.

A warning to be on the lookout for fallacious claims currently and into the future about causes of these events. If an authority claims a certain cause without having any forecasting credibility and accuracy, then take it with a grain of salt. Question hard. Think and create laterally. The information age gives at your fingertips the ability to discern (in conjunction with natural law/reality) what is real and what is pure fabricated constructs that have disjointed from reality. Sharpen your peripherals and beware the Duke and the King!

D. A. McArthur