The nature of weather and climate can be easily summed up in a single word…. Fickle. The constant nature of our 3-dimensional experience and interaction with our immediate environments is always governed by 4 dimensions, which is time. Nothing is static in a perpetually marching tune of notes and time signatures, which govern where our weather and climate take place. Depending on the cycles per measurement of time, depends what type of climate or weather will eventuate and what time period it will play out in. The theories around relativity are constantly changing and new ones seem to pop up quite regularly, we need not delve into them, all we need to know is how we can apply observable time cycles to best position ourselves to get the most out of the signature time period without getting confused by plausible theories about time.

This brings us to the ever-changing and largely erroneous forecasts of computer models. Computer models with the incorrect inputs cannot forecast these time cycles of weather and climate using second-hand effects to primary causes. Why is this so?

A very rough and basic description of the workings of a computer model for forecasting weather and climate are as follows:

The computer will take in current data inputs of sea temperatures, atmospheric temperatures, land surface temps, radiation output from the sun (absorption/reflected) and other varied measurements in a 3D grid form around the globe, then use equations based on various models of analogue years and the current mainstream level of understanding of how our climate works, to simulate and produce a forecast. This is a basic representation of one type of model to which there a few different types which are in use to forecast weather and climate by the mainstream meteorological community.

There is nothing wrong in the metrics that are being used for the computer models to draw a conclusion, these are verifiable measurements of real time data. The problem arises with the algorithm used to draw a conclusion in certain time frames. As the old saying goes, garbage in, garbage out. The past is littered with low accuracy forecasts from computer models which attempted in vein to simulate future scenarios. These models are used on all sorts of time frames and are used by some of the world’s most well-known climate and meteorological organisations. Every now and then one will have a “strike” but as we all know from playing games of chance in life, we get the odd windfall and bullseye. The true verification and plausibility to a theorem comes through the ability to get accuracy above that of chance.

This brings us to the true meaning of the word that is loosely thrown around to either credit or discredit one’s theories and work…… Science! For a working theorem to be “scientific” it has to have predictive value. This means that if you are presenting a working system as having merit, it has to have a predictive value of that above chance, even if all components and metrics of the system are unexplainable at the time. This could be due to the lack of apt measuring instruments or the mathematical equation has not been discovered yet. The theory that holds the highest accuracy to the outcome sort after, at that point in time, should be used until proven inept by a superior system with higher predictive value.

The current field of climate and weather forecasting has a woeful track record and yet, after all the inaccurate forecasts, the same algorithms are still being run and used just with more “computer power”. What was Einstein’s view on insanity again?? A dead horse will still show some movement from mechanical force but a bigger whip still won’t get it over the line.

The current systems of computer models used by climate and meteorological organisations are defunct on long term forecasting past 7 days and no amount of computer power will get them more accuracy beyond a couple more days (unless they hire Matt Groening). Solweather’s current aim is to move long term weather and climate forecasting into a new paradigm. Not by trying to win over dogmatic institutions and those who discredit everything unless it can earn them some funding, but by true scientific predictive results. This is the only true way of showing credibility. Esteemed positions and degrees in the current field of meteorology and climatology unfortunately will not get you over the line unless you can show accuracy, over time, above the current field of forecasters.

At the end of the day, we all win from the jousting and jostling for the lead by all those involved in the long term forecasting race. More accuracy is what everyone is hunting for so all entities can become more efficient with our resources and time through being forewarned of impending climate and weather. Competent forecasters will play a large roll as humanity moves into a new paradigm where the dogma of modern age scientism, disintegrates into the abyss. Filling the void will be a system of integration on part of humanity, to where a symbiotic harmony connects all things through the understanding of our cyclical nature of weather and climate.

Solweather is an organization pressing hard for that day and age to become a conscious reality.

D. A. McArthur

Why climate and weather computer models will always lag and always produce moving targets